Wednesday, September 13, 2006

What? No Myrth York?

My thoughts on Chafee v. Laffey to come tomorrow. Until then, here are my thoughts on the upcoming general elections. Incumbents are in caps.

Governor: DON CARCIERI (R) v. Charles Fogarty (D)

I absolutely love this race. You have a well-heeled, incumbent against someone who has been in elected office since he was in grade school. (NOTE TO SELF: Check if that’s true.) We also have candidates whose strengths are not exactly prototypical for their parties. Governor Carcieri is particularly strong in Providence, where the official city motto is “Where Statewide Republican Campaigns Come to Die.” The Lt. Governor is strong in the western, more conservative part of the state due to his ties to Glocestor. All in all, I’d rather snag Providence. Although I’m torn because Charlie does look like Mr. Potato Head, I gotta go with the Gov on this one.

Lt. Governor: Reginald Centracchio (R) v. Elizabeth Roberts (D)

I was pretty surprised when General Reginald “Call me Reggie” Centracchio made the jump into this race. I have no idea how he’ll do and don’t especially think that it matters all that much. The Lieutenant Governor doesn’t do all that much and only serves the purpose of being a statewide, elected official who can stump and raise cash for lower offices. If Gen. Reggie is committed to that sort of party-building, he could be a valuable asset to the Republicans, but this benefit is mitigated by the low prestige of the position. As a side note, even if he does win, there isn’t a lot of upward mobility for an old guy. I’d rather have a younger gun (say a Laffey or an Avedisian) be in this slot and ready to run for Senate or Governor down the road. Bonus side note: if Gov. Carcieri and the General do win, he will be the first LG to be of the same party as the Governor since Bernie Jackvony was appointed to the office in ’97.

Secretary of State: Sue Stenhouse (R) v. Ralph Mollis (D)

Pass. For now.

Treasurer: Andrew Lyon (R) v. Frank Caprio (D)

No real thoughts on this race other than an anecdote. When Andrew Lyon came forward to run for Treasurer in 2002, he was a complete unknown. No one really expected him to do much, but he did put in a lot of effort. In RI, one of the requirements to get on the statewide ballot is that you must get a thousand signatures from registered voters. It’s a time-consuming task and very tedious and most candidates view it as an afterthought that’s the volunteer coordinator’s problem. Mr. Lyon, on the other hand, feverishly worked Smithfield to get as many signatures as he could for the Republican ticket. It doesn’t really do anything for his ability to win this race, but it is encouraging to see a guy off the street do all that he can to affect change in his community.

Attorney General: Bill Harsch (R) v. PATRICK LYNCH (D)

Pass.

1st District US Rep: Jon Scott (R) v. PATRICK KENNEDY (D)
I really don’t like Patrick Kennedy. The best argument that democracy is bound to fail is that this guy is a congressman. On the good news front, since he oversaw the Dems getting beat down while head of the DNCC, he isn’t in the mix for Speaker if the Dems do take the House this year. So, as a groundskeeper might say, I’ve got that going for me.

2nd District US Rep: No One (R) v. JIM LANGEVIN (D)

It’s pretty tough to dislike Jim Langevin and I don’t. At the same time, the fact that he has run unopposed for all intents and purposes since he got into office is a big indictment of where the Republican Party is in Rhode Island.

US Senate: LINCOLN CHAFEE (R) v. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

This one is the Daddy Race. It has the potential to have serious implications on a national level, but I’d rather focus on the local side of it. (Tip of the hat to Tip.) Having a U.S. Senator that’s a Republican is absolutely huge for the state party. My rough guess is that having Linc Chafee on the team is worth about $100K to other candidates in each cycle where he isn’t running. That number, which is a very conservative guess, includes every statewide office and every candidate underneath them right down to the city council level. There is almost certainly the same advantage with having an active, Republican governor as well.

1 Comments:

At 9/18/2006 10:18:00 AM, Blogger Cannon said...

I want my Chafee v. Laffey analysis!

 

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