BASEBALL PICKS -- PART ONE

American League West

CANNON’S PICK: Oakland
All due respect to the Angels, they are a great team. They will be serious contenders, and a key injury here or there puts them on top. Otherwise, I just think that a healthy Oakland beats out LA. The Angels finished 95-67 while the A’s finished 88-74, 7 games behind. Figure in the rash of injuries that Oakland faced in September and Zito’s inexplicable 0-6 start, there is your difference. Moreover, I think that Loaiza, Thomas, and Bradley altogether are stronger pickups than Weaver and Alfonzo. Oakland wins, but it’s close and I may regret this one later.

ICONOCLAST’S PICK: Oakland
Oakland’s combination of ridiculous hair and guitar-playing pitchers signal to me that they are a team of destiny. The Angels will have good pitching, but they’re so old that I can actually smell Garret Anderson decomposing from Philly. The Rangers and the Mariners are just cannon fodder.

American League Central

CANNON’S PICK: Chicago
Cleveland (93-69) gave World Champion White Sox (99-63) a serious run for their money in the final weeks, but was this a sign of things to come? Neither Cleveland nor Chicago nor Minnesota (83-79) made any major moves that will upset the balance of power in this division. All are young teams, and should still be fairly competitive. In the end, though, I just don’t see much a difference here from last season.

ICONOCLAST’S PICK: Minnesota
Really a toss-up division. I’d pick the White Sox, but I hate them too much to do that. So I'm going to say The Twins. They have the best pitching staff from top-to-bottom in the division. Last year, they were victims of a slow start. The ChiSox were the beneficiaries of to a great one, but they almost blew it down the final stretch. When in doubt, always go with the team managed by a guy named “Rod”.

American League East

CANNON’S PICK: Boston
If Toronto makes good on their promises, this could prove to be the most competitive division in the AL. Nevertheless, I find the Yankees and the Red Sox, both 95-67 last season, to both be too strong for the Jays to overcome. I pick the Sox because of serious upgrades in the infield and better pitching from last year, while the Yanks have gotten older and only added a lead-off outfielder (a good pickup, but not enough).

ICONOCLAST’S (SURPRISING) PICK: Boston
“Will the Yanks get #27? Maybe. Will the Sox get #7?” Well, despite that thoughtless argument, I think I’m going to go against the Yanks this year. There’s absolutely no way that Mussina, Johnson, and Pavano stay healthy this year. As great as Mariano is, he’s been way overused the last two years and that is bound to come back and bite Torre. Picking up the Caveman was great for their offense, but Johnny can’t throw a cutter. I’m also wildly confident about Schilling and Beckett coming out strong this year. The one question mark with the Sox is Keith Foulke. If he’s back, that’s fantastic. If not, Timlin or Papelbon have the ability to step in. Additionally, any time you take you take Edgar Rentawreck out of your in-field, you've become a better team.

National League West

CANNON’S PICK: Los Angeles
By far, the NL west was the worst division in baseball last year. Only .500+ team was the division-winning Padres, and there was debate in September as to whether they would be the first ever play-off team with a losing record. The team that wins this division will be the team with the best upgrades. After quickly dismissing the Rockies (67-95) and the D-Backs (77-85), we’re left with the Giants (75-87), Dodgers (71-91), and Padres (82-80). Even with a healthy and legal Barry Bonds, an aging lineup and lackluster pitching makes Giants unable to compete. The Padres’ lineup is likewise getting older, but I think there is reason to be excited about their pitching this year. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have bulked up in every way possible. 28 year-old Jae Seo gives you something to get excited about, while Danny Baez and a healthy Eric Gagne provide exceptional late-inning support. Mueller, Furcal, and even Lofton were great pickups which should help a mediocre offense last year.

ICONOCLAST’S PICK: Los Angeles
Still a crappy division. The team that added the most stuff is LA (they've become the Red Sox West). I pick them. Even if Bonds plays the whole year, which he won’t, the Giants haven’t placed enough around him.

National League Central

CANNON’S PICK: St. Louis
Can the Cards make it three in a row for 100 win seasons? It may prove to be more challenging than in previous years. Don’t expect the Pirates to lose 95 games this year, but don’t buy playoff tickets yet, either. Ditto, Cincinnati. The Brewers are a young team with some potential to steal a few games from the big contenders in the division. Don’t expect too much from the Astros (89-73), barring any big surprises. Last year the ‘Stros stole the wildcard from the overly-competitive NL east late in the season, but Roger Clemens is too big a hole to fill. Year after year the Cubs get a lot of love, but I am not buying it. For them to be serious contenders Kerry Wood would have to learn how not to be Kerry Wood, and Mark Prior needs some rejuvenation (interesting requirement for a 25 year-old). If, and only if, the Cubs can meet these requirements then they have a chance.

In the end, St. Louis has too much talent not to succeed. In 2004, the Cards got to the World Series calling Jeff Suppan their ace. Today, their offense may be stronger than ever (especially with a healthy Scott Rolen), and you can add a Cy Young winner and Mark Mulder to the rotation.

ICONOCLAST’ S PICK: Chicago
Why not? The Cards are old and have a mediocre pitching staff. Houston couldn’t buy a run last year and have lost their best pitcher (The Soulless One). As a bonus, if the Cubs do well, we’ll all get to hear more Dusty Baker Quotes. It won’t affect the divisional standings, but expect big things from Prince Fielder in Milwaukee.

National League East

CANNON’S PICK: New York
It may be my hometown biases talking, but this is the Mets’ (83-79) year. By adding Wagner, Delgado, Lo Duca, Chad Bradford, and even Jorge Julio, Endy Chavez, and Xavier Nady, no team has done so well to beef up their roster. Pitching is the Mets’ biggest question mark, but a healthy Pedro is essential.

Don’t count on Washington or Florida to wow you. The Nats over-performed to finish at .500 last year, and Florida has sold off half of their talent. The Phillies have assembled a great, young lineup for this year, but pitching is their Achilles heel. Calling either Lieber or Wolf an ace is a stretch at best, and now they don’t even have Wagner, who carried the Phils through a lot of troubled times last year.

In conclusion, I will give deference to the Braves. Insults to my analysis aside, it’s really hard to bet against a team that has won 14 straight divisions. They have solid pitching anchored by Smoltz and Hudson, seasoned veterans in the Jones brothers (just kidding), and a small army of impressive yoots. I will stick with my first instinct and put the Mets on top, but the Tribe may yet prove me wrong.

ICONOCLAST’S PICK: Philadelphia
This should be a really, fun division to watch. The Fightin Phils have an absolutely sick line-up. I also really like Ryan Madsen and Gavin Floyd moving into the starting rotation. The Mets should also be really good, although with each passing year I can just feel that Big Injury creeping on Pedro. A few of their moves just don’t make sense to me, like moving Mike Cameron at fifty cents on the dollar and trading Kris Benson away for even less. They’re going to have needs during the season that they won’t be able to fill because they’ve already traded their valuable spare parts. I don’t see any reason to like the Braves other than past success, but that’s not enough for me. Of course, I’m sure I’m wrong.